World Cup 2026 predictions you can check
Free World Cup match analysis — probabilities, not tips. Every call locked at kickoff, scored either way.
Updated 08:11 UTC · refreshes after every final whistle
No match scheduled right now — the next fixtures will appear here on matchday.
Our record at a glance
18
predictions scored
0.570
mean Brier
5 of 18
most-likely outcome landed
Every prediction is published before kickoff and locked at kickoff, then sealed into a public SHA-256 hash chain — tamper-evident, not just promised.
How it works
- We publish before kickoff
- It locks and can't be edited
- We score it after full-time, misses included
World Cup chances
The full pictureEvery nation still in it, sized by its chance of winning the trophy.
- Spain100%0.0
simulated 10,000 times · updated daily · snapshot 5 Aug 2026
Upcoming matches
Thursday, 6 August 2026
No upcoming fixtures right now — they’ll appear here as soon as the next matches are scheduled.
What we're watching
The model's tightest calls of the round — context, never a tip.
Nothing flagged yet — featured matchups appear here once predictions are in.
Beat the model — free to play
Call each fixture yourself before kickoff, Brier-scored exactly like our own ledger.
Free and prize-free, always — track your own record against the model’s.
Make your first callHow recent calls landed
Full recordAre our predictions any good? Every one is on the record — judge for yourself.
Spain v Argentina
we said Spain 45%
0–0Full timeA 45% call lost — that should happen more often than not.
published 17 Jul 08:26 UTC · locked at kickoff
France v England
we said France 45%
4–6Full timeA 45% call lost — that should happen more often than not.
published 16 Jul 08:31 UTC · locked at kickoff
England v Argentina
we said the draw 45%
1–2Full timeA 45% call lost — that should happen more often than not.
published 13 Jul 09:46 UTC · locked at kickoff
France v Spain
we said the draw 45%
0–2Full timeA 45% call lost — that should happen more often than not.
published 12 Jul 08:30 UTC · locked at kickoff
Argentina v Switzerland
we said Argentina 45%
1–1Full timeA 45% call lost — that should happen more often than not.
published 9 Jul 10:04 UTC · locked at kickoff
Norway v England
we said the draw 45%
1–1Full timeA 45% call landed — our narrow favourite came through.
published 9 Jul 10:04 UTC · locked at kickoff
Spain v Belgium
we said Spain 45%
2–1Full timeA 45% call landed — our narrow favourite came through.
published 8 Jul 08:43 UTC · locked at kickoff
France v Morocco
we said France 45%
2–0Full timeA 45% call landed — our narrow favourite came through.
published 7 Jul 09:59 UTC · locked at kickoff
Switzerland v Colombia
we said Switzerland 35%
0–0Full timeA 35% call lost — that should happen more often than not.
published 5 Jul 09:21 UTC · locked at kickoff
Argentina v Egypt
we said Argentina 45%
3–2Full timeA 45% call landed — our narrow favourite came through.
published 5 Jul 09:21 UTC · locked at kickoff
Golden Boot race
Full standings- 10goals
Kylian Mbappé
France
- 8goals
L. Messi
Argentina
- 7goals
J. Bellingham
England
- 7goals
E. Haaland
Norway
- 6goals
O. Dembélé
France
The record so far
Would guessing do better? Compare us with the always-guessing baseline — misses included.
See the ledger18
scored calls
0.570
mean Brier
0.901
mean log loss
across 18 scored calls — small samples are noisy.
- Glass Pitch
- 0.570
- always guessing ⅓ / ⅓ / ⅓
- 0.667
Lower is better. When we say 70%, it should happen about 70% of the time — the ledger shows whether it does.
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