Spain2–1Belgium
Spain
BelgiumOur call
- Spain
- 45%
- Draw
- 45%
- Belgium
- 10%
Locked before kickoff — it can never be edited.
Published · locked · scored
Probabilities from a third-party model; context, not a guarantee.
What's driving this call
The model favours Spain (45%) over Belgium (10%), with a 45% chance of a draw. Recent form is closely matched between the two sides (54% vs 46%).
How the call landed
Correct call
Our call: Spain (45%). It finished 2–1 — a home win for Spain.
Our prediction
2–1
Actual result
2–1
0.52
Brier score
0 best, 2 worst — lower is better.
0.80
Log loss
Punishes confident misses — lower is better.
Recent form
Spain
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
Belgium
- D
- D
- W
- D
- W
Form is each team’s most recent finished matches in our record, oldest to newest.
The pre-match read
Too close to call — the model gives Spain only a slight edge at 45%, 2–1 its predicted score.
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Deeper read
xG, shot quality and the full model breakdown for this fixture are part of Glass Pitch Premium — the full ledger and every match’s probabilities stay free forever either way. See the deeper read
More matchday calls
Other fixtures worth a look from here — every group is capped and self-excluded, never a repeat of this match.
Every call is on the record
Wins and losses alike, locked at kickoff and scored — see the full track record.
Analysis and probabilities only — not betting advice. Outcomes are uncertain; we do not guarantee results and we do not claim to beat the market.