Full time

Switzerland0–0Colombia

Tue 7 Jul, 20:00 UTC

Our call

Win probabilityPredicted 1–1

Switzerland: 35%
Draw: 35%
Colombia: 30%

Locked before kickoff — it can never be edited.

Published Sun 5 Jul, 09:21 UTC · locked Tue 7 Jul, 20:00 UTC · scored Tue 7 Jul, 22:57 UTC

Probabilities from a third-party model; context, not a guarantee.

What's driving this call

The model favours Switzerland (35%) over Colombia (30%), with a 35% chance of a draw. Recent form is closely matched between the two sides (50% vs 50%).

How the call landed

Missed call

Our call: Switzerland (35%). It finished 0–0 — a draw.

Our prediction

1–1

Actual result

0–0

0.64

Brier score

0 best, 2 worst — lower is better.

1.05

Log loss

Punishes confident misses — lower is better.

How we score every call

Recent form

Switzerland

Colombia

Form is each team’s most recent finished matches in our record, oldest to newest.

The pre-match read

Too close to call — the model gives Switzerland only a slight edge at 35%, 1–1 its predicted score.

Deeper read

xG, shot quality and the full model breakdown for this fixture are part of Glass Pitch Premium — the full ledger and every match’s probabilities stay free forever either way. See the deeper read

Other fixtures worth a look from here — every group is capped and self-excluded, never a repeat of this match.