England1–2Argentina
England
ArgentinaOur call
- England
- 10%
- Draw
- 45%
- Argentina
- 45%
Locked before kickoff — it can never be edited.
Published · locked · scored
Probabilities from a third-party model; context, not a guarantee.
What's driving this call
The model favours Argentina (45%) over England (10%), with a 45% chance of a draw. Recent form is closely matched between the two sides (46% vs 54%).
How the call landed
Missed call
Our call: the draw (45%). It finished 1–2 — an away win for Argentina.
Our prediction
1–2
Actual result
1–2
0.52
Brier score
0 best, 2 worst — lower is better.
0.80
Log loss
Punishes confident misses — lower is better.
Recent form
England
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
Argentina
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
Form is each team’s most recent finished matches in our record, oldest to newest.
The pre-match read
Too close to call — the model gives the draw only a slight edge at 45%, 1–2 its predicted score.
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Deeper read
xG, shot quality and the full model breakdown for this fixture are part of Glass Pitch Premium — the full ledger and every match’s probabilities stay free forever either way. See the deeper read
More matchday calls
Other fixtures worth a look from here — every group is capped and self-excluded, never a repeat of this match.
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Every call is on the record
Wins and losses alike, locked at kickoff and scored — see the full track record.
Analysis and probabilities only — not betting advice. Outcomes are uncertain; we do not guarantee results and we do not claim to beat the market.