France4–6England
France
EnglandOur call
- France
- 45%
- Draw
- 45%
- England
- 10%
Locked before kickoff — it can never be edited.
Published · locked · scored
Probabilities from a third-party model; context, not a guarantee.
What's driving this call
The model favours France (45%) over England (10%), with a 45% chance of a draw. Recent form is closely matched between the two sides (50% vs 50%).
How the call landed
Missed call
Our call: France (45%). It finished 4–6 — an away win for England.
Our prediction
2–1
Actual result
4–6
1.22
Brier score
0 best, 2 worst — lower is better.
2.30
Log loss
Punishes confident misses — lower is better.
Recent form
France
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
England
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
Form is each team’s most recent finished matches in our record, oldest to newest.
The pre-match read
Too close to call — the model gives France only a slight edge at 45%, 2–1 its predicted score.
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Deeper read
xG, shot quality and the full model breakdown for this fixture are part of Glass Pitch Premium — the full ledger and every match’s probabilities stay free forever either way. See the deeper read
More matchday calls
Other fixtures worth a look from here — every group is capped and self-excluded, never a repeat of this match.
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Every call is on the record
Wins and losses alike, locked at kickoff and scored — see the full track record.
Analysis and probabilities only — not betting advice. Outcomes are uncertain; we do not guarantee results and we do not claim to beat the market.