Glass Pitch

World Cup

Full time

Brazil1–2Norway

Our call

Win probabilityPredicted 1–1
Brazil
35%
Draw
35%
Norway
30%

Locked before kickoff — it can never be edited.

Published · locked · scored

Probabilities from a third-party model; context, not a guarantee.

What's driving this call

The model favours Brazil (35%) over Norway (30%), with a 35% chance of a draw. Recent form is closely matched between the two sides (53% vs 47%).

How the call landed

Missed call

Our call: Brazil (35%). It finished 1–2 — an away win for Norway.

Our prediction

1–1

Actual result

1–2

0.73

Brier score

0 best, 2 worst — lower is better.

1.20

Log loss

Punishes confident misses — lower is better.

How we score every call

Recent form

Brazil

  1. D
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W

Norway

  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W

Form is each team’s most recent finished matches in our record, oldest to newest.

The pre-match read

Too close to call — the model gives Brazil only a slight edge at 35%, 1–1 its predicted score.

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Deeper read

xG, shot quality and the full model breakdown for this fixture are part of Glass Pitch Premium — the full ledger and every match’s probabilities stay free forever either way. See the deeper read

More matchday calls

Other fixtures worth a look from here — every group is capped and self-excluded, never a repeat of this match.

More in World Cup

More from Brazil

More from Norway

Every call is on the record

Wins and losses alike, locked at kickoff and scored — see the full track record.

Ledger

Analysis and probabilities only — not betting advice. Outcomes are uncertain; we do not guarantee results and we do not claim to beat the market.